The End of the Cupcake Presidency

The nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court has got to be one of the biggest political blunders of the presidency of George W. Bush. Up until the Miers nomination, Bush's actions in the White House primarily outraged liberals (the invasion of Iraq, Guantanamo Bay, Abu Ghraib, tax cuts, pulling the plug on the ABM treaty, pulling the plug on the Kyoto treaty). Bush could get away with this because liberals and Democrats didn't vote for him in 2000 or 2004. Instead, Bush appeased his conservative base of supporters and governed from the right. The 2002 and 2004 Republican election victories gave Bush the political clout with the conservative Right that his father never had as president. By nominating an unqualified crony to the Supreme Court, Bush has ticked off his conservative base of support. This was an unnecessary appointment of a Question Mark to the Supreme Court, someone with no qualifications and absolutely no intellectual heft for the job.

Since the nomination of Harriet Miers, Bush has split his base of support in two, between thinking conservatives who are principled and know right from wrong (and therefore oppose this nomination), and brain-dead conservatives who would support the appointment of Bush's dog Barney to the High Court (and repeat without reservation whatever talking points on the Barney appointment that Karl Rove generated from his Blackberry). As a result of the bone-headed Miers appointment, Bush's approval ratings have fallen below 40% for the first time of his presidency, a dramatic drop from the high-water mark support of 92% he received after 9/11.

What is to be done? This country cannot afford a failed presidency for the next 3 years. There is too much at stake in terms of the U.S. economy and national security to have a feebled Carter-like presidency that is impotent, rudderless, and adrift. Here are some thoughts to consider:

1) Bush will never be facing election again, so on one level it doesn't matter what his approval ratings are. The only people that will be screwed by Bush's low approval ratings will be Republicans up for election in the 2006 midterm elections.

2) Bush could rebuild his credibility if he aggressively attacked the trade deficit (which is at an all time high), the budget deficit (which is out of control), and U.S. energy consumption (which is out of control). But of course, attacking any of these three items will mean having to govern and make messy choices. And so far, Bush has only made messy choices in foreign policy (the decision to invade Afghanistan, the decision to invade Iraq, and the decision to tell the ACLU to go to hell in terms of how al-Qaeda detainees are muzzled in Guantanamo). On the domestic front, Bush is the ultimate cupcake president - Americans don't need to sacrifice at all! We can have our tax cuts, make no sacrifice or cuts in our biggest entitlement programs, jack up domestic spending to levels that would embarass Lyndon Johnson, and throw jet fuel on the economy in the form of low interest rates and even more tax cuts and even more domestic spending. The cupcake presidency is coming to an end because we have maxed out the credit card. Will Bush blow out the candle of his cupcake presidency? Only time will tell.

3) The Republicans are going to take a bath in the 2006 midterms. After 5 years of uninterrupted electoral success, the Karl Rove election party is coming to an end. Unfortunately, the Democrats are so divided and screwed up and rudderless that they cannot at this point mount a vigorous offense against a leaderless GOP.

We live in interesting times, and they are only going to get more interesting in the future. The best thing that Bush can do at this point is dump Harriet Miers (why not give her a nice ambassadorship in Luxembourg or Lichenstein?), appoint another John Roberts-like candidate to the bench, and then pick two to three high profile issues and fight like hell for them for the remainder of his presidency (how about energy independence, entitlement reform, and reducing the trade deficit?).